“Napoli” – “Roma”: prediction and rate of Vladimir Chaplygin

Again, we have an example of how several statistical parameters can serve as an indicator for betting on corner kicks. It seems to me that the assessment of Napoli’s chances of becoming the leader in terms of the angular coefficient of 1.63 is an attraction of unprecedented generosity from the bookmaker, since with such statistical calculations it is necessary to give out numbers much less.

Let’s start with ball possession. I think very few people will have doubts about who will take control of the ball in this match. Here’s some data for you to think about: Napoli players make 643 passes per game on average in home games, while Roma players make 500 passes at home. What do you think, what percentage of the advantage in possession of the ball will result in a difference of almost one and a half hundred passes? It seems to me that at least 10 percent. And where there is a lot of possession, there should also be an advantage in corners.

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Now let’s move on to my favorite three parameters: crosses, stems, saves. Napoli make 23.3 crosses at home, Roma away 17.21. There is a plus 5 advantage. Napoli players clear the ball 9.21 times per game and Roma 17.17. Here the difference is seven points in favor of the hosts (the fewer the carry-overs, the better for the corner advantage). Finally, saves. It is after the goalkeepers’ rescues that the ball does not fly into the target, but to the side beyond the endline. The hosts have 2.39 saves per game, the guests 3.78.

In general, in all respects, it turns out that Napoli will put pressure on the opponent’s goal. If an early goal does not happen, the hosts must confidently win by the number of corners taken.

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